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No alliance with Praja Rajyam-YSR

Rubbishing reports that the Congress was holding talks with the Praja Rajyam for a post-poll alliance, the Chief Minister, Dr Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, exuded confidence that the party will be able to form the state government on its own.
“Where is the necessity for alliances? We are confident of forming the government on our own. The Congress will win over 230 Assembly seats and 36 MP seats,” the Chief Minister told mediapersons in New Delhi.
On the issue of Telangana he said the Assembly committee would meet to discuss the issue.
On his contradictory statements regarding a new state after the first phase of elections he said: “Those who do not understand the statement are speaking like that.”
On the controversy over the Obulapuram mining license and whether it was a failure of the state government to control illegal mining, Dr Rajasekhar Reddy said: “The Central forest and environment department directed to suspend license at two places where some mining area fell in forest area. I do not feel it is the failure of the state government.”

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KCR shock to Mahakootami!

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A sort of uneasiness is prevailing in the Mahakootami, even after polling is completed all over the state. Though the four partners in Mahakootami – Telugu Desam, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, CPI and CPI-M – managed to share the seats, there has not been much cohesion among them during the campaign. Except in a few places, they participated in the campaign reluctantly.

The polling is over now, but the partners are still criticising one another for bungling in seat sharing. The TRS has gone a bit further and given an indication that it might as well slip out of the Mahakootami, if the situation demands. TRS president K Chandrasekhara Rao’s comment that he would join hands with any alliance that would give Telangana has become the top story in all the dailies on Sunday. He made it clear that the TRS would not hesitate to support the NDA, if the latter agrees to give separate Telangana. Though the Left parties, for the time being, are ruling out joining hands with the Congress at the Centre in the post-poll scenario, they might change their stand in order to prevent the NDA coming to power, if there is no other alternative. As such, the Left position in the country is bad – in West Bengal and Kerala, the CPI-M is likely to lose heavily. In such a scenario, it might go back to the Congress fold sooner or later.

This means, TD president N Chandrababu Naidu will once again become a loner in Andhra Pradesh. If the TD comes to power on its own, it is well and good; but if does not happen, all his dreams would be shattered.

Yet other interesting news of the day is the Central government’s order stopping mining activities in five Obulapuram mines in Anantapur district, belonging to mining tycoon Gali Janardhan Reddy. The surprising element in this episode is that the Centre has taken the decision after the elections: everybody knows Gali’s money has flown like water in the AP elections because of his proximity with Chief Minister Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy. This was apparently to curtail him from benefiting the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka. As expected, it was a big news only for Eenadu and Andhra Jyothy, but not for Sakshi.

Since there won’t be much development in the state till May 16 when the results would be out, it is the field day for all the dailies to write whatever they want and speculate whatever they can!

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Congress Get 155 Assembly And 28 Lok Sabha

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With the election fever now settling and the result fate/date set for May 16th, many have been coming up with their predictions. However, it looks like film producer Lagadapati Sridhar, the brother of Lagadapati Raja Gopal seems to have come up with a rather confident and optimistic prediction after his political stint and involvement in key affairs.

Lagadapati Sridhar predicts that an estimated calculation was done and he now said that Congress will be winning 155 Assembly seats and 28 lok sabha seats confidently without a hitch. He is said to be quite firm on the figures this time. He also said to his friend before leaving for USA that his brother Raja Gopal would certainly win with a 75000 majority. He quipped about the media channels and news papers those have been writing stuff in favor of other parties leaving the truth away.

Sridhar also said that his brother appeared to him like a student who has been sitting with books through out the year but not the one who opens them before examinations. He elucidated saying that his brother has been cool much before the elections and his hard work clearly gave signals about his triumphant win.

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Kaun Banega Andhra ka CM?

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TIRUPATI: With the successful completion of the second phase of polling, and results to be declared on May 16, it is now time for the guessing game as to who will form the government, who will play the spoilsport and who will be the next Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.

Interestingly, the three main contenders for the chief minister’s post contested elections from the Rayalaseema district. Incumbent Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy contested the Pulivendula Assembly segment in Kadapa district, which has been represented by him and his family for last three decades.

On the other hand, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo, who ruled the State as chief minister for nine years, contested the Kuppam Assembly segment in Chittoor district which he has been representing since 1989. In fact, Kuppam has been the TDP bastion since the inception of the party in 1983.

Meanwhile, popular actor and chief of the newly-emerged Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) Chiranjeevi contested the Tirupati Assembly segment which had the distinction of being the launch pad of another famous actor-turned-politician Nandamuri Tarakarama Rao in 1983.

The popularity of all the three contenders for the chief minister’s post is not in question, but what needs to be considered is how they are expected to fare in the 2009 Assembly elections. All the three are quite confident of their victory and claim that they are the next chief minister of Andhra Pradesh.

Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s victory looks to be a foregone conclusion, if the voting pattern is anything to go by.

His old rival, S V Sathish Reddy, is expected to repeat history. The poor performance of the TDP in Pulivendula can be attributed to two factors — absence of strong leadership coupled with insignificant base of the cadre and absolute dominance of the Rajasekhara Reddy family in the constituency.

In Kuppam, N Chandrababu Naidu is expected to win for the fifth time in a row, but lose the margin of votes, for two factors — the Congress being able to make considerable inroads into his domain and the delimitation factor which reduced the size of his constituency.

As for Chiranjeevi, who is contesting his maiden election from two places — Tirupati and Palacole, victory seems to be his if lady luck smiles upon him in Palacole where he is expected to win by a slight margin. If the efforts of Chiranjeevi in Tirupati, where he personally monitored the entire election process, pay off, he is sure to win.

Further, last-minute blunders of his opponent B Karunakar Reddy of the Congress like the intimidation drama at a private hotel where the PRP chief was staying, and continuous shadowing of Chiranjeevi on the polling day by Congress cadre and the Congress nominee himself, are expected to prove advantageous to the PRP chief.

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80 pc voting in repoll in 63 stns

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HYDERABAD: Repolling in 63 polling stations in ten districts was passed off peacefully today. Around 80 per cent voters exercised their franchise in the repolling held due to non-functioning of and damage to EVMs or rigging. Speaking to reporters later, Chief Electoral Officer IV Subba Rao said that with today’s repolling, the polling process had been completed in the State. The arrangements for counting would start on Monday. Counting supervisors and counting agents of various political parties would be identified from tomorrow onwards. Rao said that of the 11 persons charged with rigging in Kandukur in Prakasam district, four were arrested today. The CEO asked police officials to arrest the others also as soon as possible. Polling agents of Congress and TDP cast votes on behalf of voters. The video clippings clearly showed the polling agents asking the voters whom to vote for, Rao said. He said the investigation into the incident was in progress. The district-wise polling percentage in the re-polling held in 63 polling booths is as follows. The number of booths where repolling was held was given in brackets

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YSR, Naidu forget people, but not Chiru

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The elections are over and political party leaders are feeling a bit relaxed. Presidents of all parties are planning to go on holidays to hill stations, foreign countries and summer resorts to chill out, but nobody is bothered to find out the real problems of the people.

The summer is peaking and the people are suffering from severe power cuts and scarcity of drinking water. But, they are not able to find any Congress leader or the TDP leader, who simply disappeared from the scene. YSR is in Delhi, while Naidu is planning to go to Switzerland.

One man who raised the problems of the people is Praja Rajyam Party president Chiranjeevi. He expressed anguish at the way the authorities are neglecting the people and their problems. “Small industries have been closed down due to power cuts, while farmers are facing crop loss. It is unfortunate that the authorities are not bothering about them in the name of election code, while the ruling party leaders have disappeared,” he said.

Why all this talk, Mr Chiru? The people have already cast their vote and there is no point in talking about them. Better join your friends of other parties!
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TDP, PRP Can Forget Getting Majority

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While it is not sure what the voter has decided but then all parties have been pinning their hopes on power. Surprisingly, the main parties are expressing confidence that victory will be theirs. While TDP is boasting about ‘Nagadhu Badili..’, PRP is talking about ‘Saamajika Nyayam’, all meetings saw crowds in huge numbers and due to this all parties are turning the outcome to their favor and are calculating their own numbers. But then, how true is their observation about getting single majority and how deeply have they analyzed their strengths and weaknesses for each seat is the question.

Practically speaking, there is no way that PRP can get absolute majority and so it is now upto TDP or Congress. TDP has declared that they would get 160 seats comfortably but then they have contested only for 220 and getting 160 from that is quite difficult. If there was an anti government wave or pro –TDP situation then it was possible, but that is not to be seen. In first phase, the fight was on for 154 seats in Telangana and north Andhra but the effect of Mahakootami was felt only in Telangana. This has got 119 assembly seats out of which TRS had 44, communists had 17 and TDP fought in only 58 seats. Even if TDP manages 30-40 seats from Telangana, north Andhra had 31 seats. So if TDP wins say 15 seats then the total will go max between 50-55 seats only. So to get majority, they have to win 90-100 seats from the remaining 128 assembly seats in the second phase of polling. This is a highly impossible task. Districts like Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal etc have got TRS contesting from 26 places while TDP had only 18. Similarly, places like Khammam, Nalgonda had the strong communists fighting in 15 spots while TDP had only 7. So winning 25 seats is ruled out for TDP. In north Andhra, TDP got weak with few key leaders shifting to PRP so out of the 31 seats, many say that winning even 10 seats will be difficult for TDP. Chiru effect is said to be high in north Andhra.

In the second phase, Krishna, dual Godavari will have Chiru effect and this time Lok Satta also poses threat to TDP in Krishna and Guntur. Rayalaseema has got PRP giving tough fight to TDP. So out of 128 seats that TDP has fought, even if they win half of them it will be considered a great achievement, as per experts. Under this situation, it is very hard for TDP to get absolute majority. Coming to Mahakootami, TRS says they will surely get 25 seats and 4-5 more from other areas. Communists will not get even 10 in Telangana as per reports. According to a senior communist leader, CPI-3, CPM-4 seems to be the only chance. So out of the 154 seats in the first phase, if MK could get upto 80-90 seats and in the second phase, they would have to get about 60-70 from the coastal belt. Only then a majority is possible.

Coming to PRP, they have given up in Telangana and see some chances in north Andhra. In first phase, getting 15-20 seats also is difficult as per sources. In second phase, they might get upto 25 seats which are also with great difficulty but totally they cannot cross more than 50. so majority for PRP is a miracle only. When it comes to Congress, if they score 70-80 during first phase then they have to win same amount in second phase also to get majority. In Telangana, there are 119 seats out of which 29 are in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy. If 7-8 go to Majlis , Congress is expecting to take at least 15 seats here. And since TRS is claiming at least 25 out of the 44 seats, it means that congress has chance to get the rest. Also, if TRS-Communists take 15 seats then Congress says that they will win 8 approximately. If Congress manages 40-50 seats in Telangana and minimum 34 in north Andhra then they would get up to 70 seats in phase 1. There are 52 seats in Rayalaseema so they are confident of winning 35 seats there. Out of the 88 seats in southern coastal belt, even if Congress wins half then they would be in a position to stake majority.

While this is the expecting count, the real result will be out on May 16th and that would give the full and final outcome of all the fates of the parties.

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Chiru is back in Hyderabad

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Chiru who was in Tirupathi on 23rd of April to monitor the polling activities left to Chennai on 24th April morning.. After taking two days rest in his Chennai residence, Chiru has reached his Jubilee Hills residence and spent some time with family members.

He is likely to meet his party leaders today evening.

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Congress, TD woo Chiru for support

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The Praja Rajyam is being wooed by both the Congress and the Telugu Desam for support in a possible hung House. Insiders are divided over which party to support, but TD-PR caste rivalry might just tilt the balance in favour of the Congress.

Even though PR chief Chiranjeevi has not revealed his mind, some leaders like Mr T. Devender Goud and Mr Bhuma Nagi Reddy, ex-TD leaders, are asking him to not join hands with the TD chief, Mr N. Chandra-babu Naidu.

Leaders like Mr Ch. Hari-rama Jogaiah and Mr P. Upendra, who joined the PR from the Congress, are also backing this proposal. These leaders contend that tying up with the TD would threaten the very existence of the Praja Rajyam. “The same thing happened to the BJP when it aligned with the TD in the state,” said a senior PR leader. “The BJP’s growth was stunted in the shadow of the TD.”

However, other former TD leaders like Mr C. Rama-chandraiah and Mr K. Kala Venkata Rao, are said to be pushing for an alignment with Mr Naidu. Based on the Kapu-Kamma rivalry in coastal Andhra, the PR leadership is said to be weighing the option of joining hands with the Congress. Congress leaders are confident that the PR would back the Congress in the event of hung House.

“Chiranjeevi is an intelligent man. I don’t think that he would align with Mr Naidu, whose nine-year regime put people to hardships,” said Mr K. Rosaiah, the finance minister.

Asked about the PR’s plans, the party’s political affairs committee member, Mr P. Upendra, said, “We are exploring various options.” He was quick to add that the PR itself would get enough seats and Chiranjeevi would be the CM.

The TD leadership has started luring the PR for a post-poll alliance. The TD politburo member, Mr Yanamala Ramakrishnudu, said the PR would join hands with the TD as Chiranjeevi had good relations with Mr Naidu. It is learnt that the TD leadership fears that the Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief, Mr K. Chandrasekhara Rao, would move out of the coalition.

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Election Commission Turned Blind In 2009 Elections

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The Election Commission has come out with an excellent job of conducting the elections in a fair way but then it seems to have lost grip in the climax. Especially, taking action against the media channels is something they missed out badly as there seems to have been some clear violations that took place.

Apparently, TVs should be silenced on polling day but instead almost all the channels were busy roping in leaders from TDP, Congress and having discussion forums. The leaders were busy propagating their parties in a big way and this has given them chance to do some more publicity.

Many say that ever since Naveen Chawla has taken over as chief EC, things have changed. Naveen is known as a staunch Congressman and one could see how at many places, the party was given clean chit on some evident violations they did- YSR’s controversial statement on Telangana issue, Asaduddin’s challenge to DGP etc.
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